Figure 8.2  Each year, the segments drift the length of the hypotenuse of the triangle formed by the decreases in size and increase in performance. For example, in the Low End segment, size decreases and performance increases by 0.5 units, moving the segment center 0.7 units across the map.

You want to know where the segment circles will be in future years. Use Form 1 to record the segment circle centers for each round (that is, each simulated year).

Table 8.2 shows the yearly drift rates for each segment. For example, the Traditional segment ends Round 0 (that is, the year before the start of the simulation) with a performance of 5.0 and a size of 15.0. To these coordinates, add the performance coordinate drift rate of +0.7 (customers want better performing products) and subtract the size coordinate drift rate of -0.7 (customers want smaller products).

The result, at the end of Round 1 the center of the Traditional segment circle will have a performance of 5.7 and a size of 14.3.

The center of the High End segment circle ends Round 0 (last year) with a performance of 7.5 and a size of 12.5. The High End performance drift rate is +0.9 and the size drift rate is -0.9.

At the end of Round 1, the center of the High End segment circle will have a performance of 8.4 and a size of 11.6 (7.5 + 0.9 = 8.4 and 12.5 - 0.9 = 11.6). Repeat this process for all rounds for each segment.

Tip: The information in Form 1 will reflect the segment centers at the end of the round. Therefore, the Round 0 positions can be seen as the Round 1 starting positions, Round 2 centers can be seen as the Round 3 starting position, etc. Segments drift a little each month.

Tip: Products that are within 2.5 units of the segment center fall inside the smaller fine cut circle where demand is higher.